The fog of war continues overcast, as Russians are trying to regroup after a week of Ukrainian advances in the east. The war turns out not to be about scale and scope but about scale versus scope as the size of Russian military resources has not prevailed over a wide range of agile Ukrainian counterattacks.
Ukrainian forces have captured an estimated 2,500+ square kilometers in Kharkiv Oblast in the Kharkiv area counteroffensive as of September 9. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhnyi stated on September 8 that Ukrainian forces liberated over 1,000 square kilometers between September 1-8 – a day before Ukrainian forces reached the southern approach to Kupyansk and the Oskil River on September 9.[1] Ukrainian forces are likely clearing pockets of disorganized Russian forces caught in the rapid Ukrainian advance to Kupyansk, Izyum, and the Oskil River, given the influx of observed pictures of Russian prisoners of war in the past 48 hours.[2]
Ukrainian forces may collapse Russian positions around Izyum if they sever Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) north and south of Izyum. Ukrainian forces continued to advance on Kupyansk and towards Izyum on September 9, and are undertaking measures to isolate the Russian Izyum grouping of forces. If Ukrainians are successful in severing the Russian GLOCs, then they will have an opportunity to create a cauldron around Izyum and collapse a major portion of the Russian positions in northeastern Ukraine.
The Kremlin is rushing resources to the Kharkiv City-Izyum line in an attempt to halt Ukrainian advances after Ukrainian forces achieved remarkable operational surprise. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Kremlin wires published footage of Russian military convoys reportedly en route to reinforce Kupyansk, Izyum, and the general Kharkiv direction but did not acknowledge Ukrainian successes in the area.[3] While Russian milbloggers largely welcomed the reports of reinforcements, some criticized the Kremlin for first relocating units away from the Kharkiv City-Izyum line, only to deploy them again to the same location.[4] Russian forces have been redeploying out of southern Kharkiv Oblast to reinforce Donetsk Oblast and the Southern Axis to address the threat of a Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast and to resume offensive operations west of Donetsk City for several weeks.[5] The successful Ukrainian counteroffensive is upending the Kremlin’s effort to make Izyum an economy of force area. Some milbloggers also noted that September 10 will be a decisive day if Russians are unable to generate reserves and capable command in time.[6]
The Kremlin is refusing to publicly address Ukrainian successes in Kharkiv Oblast, but the counteroffensive likely prompted Russian President Vladimir Putin to convene a meeting with top Russian security and political officials on September 9.[7] The Kremlin did not discuss the topic of the security council meeting, and the Kremlin’s Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that the Kremlin will not comment on the “situation around Balakliya and other events in the special operation zone.” [8] Peskov directed all inquiries regarding the issue to the Russian MoD.
Ukraine’s counteroffensive operation in Kherson Oblast to degrade Russian forces on the Southern Axis is continuing simultaneously with Ukrainian operations on the Kharkiv City-Izyum line. Ukrainian forces are continuing to target Russian pontoon and ferry crossings daily, which indicates a long-term commitment to consistently destroying re-emerging Russian GLOCs. Ukrainian forces are maintaining a strict operational silence in southern Ukraine, which may appear as if Ukrainian forces are not advancing. Ukrainian forces are also likely operating in several directions in Kherson Oblast.
Only _today_ Ukraine has captured more tanks and howitzers from the Russians than Germany delivered to Ukraine in over six months. Let this sink in.
A set of first-person videos filmed Thursday in southern Ukraine shows a gunner mounted atop an armored Humvee, furiously firing a .50-caliber M2 Browning machine gun and raking nearby buildings with rounds roughly the size of cigars. The vehicle then stops and the gunner, an American volunteer in Ukraine swings his barrel toward muzzle flashes, squeezing the last few rounds from the ammunition belt.
‘Ammo! Ammo! Footage recorded by a soldier shows a daring assault on a village in Ukraine — one of the most dramatic scenes to emerge as the country's military advances in the south and east. w/ @AlexHortonTX https://t.co/i3xbzypUZb pic.twitter.com/zrb7ohUX6R
Another video from what appears to be the same operation suggests the soldiers are not much concerned with the possibility Russian forces will punch back with antiarmor weapons. Such munitions would easily destroy Humvees. But as the video shows, a swarm of Ukrainian vehicles streams toward a group of buildings under fire as dismounted troops move toward them. No glimpses of the enemy can be seen.
Analysts with the Institute for the Study of War said that the footage indicated Ternovi Pody had been recaptured by Ukraine.
Ukrainian Counteroffensives (Ukrainian efforts to liberate Russian-occupied territories) Eastern Ukraine: (Vovchansk-Kupyansk-Izyum-Lyman Line)
Ukrainian forces reached the outskirts of Kupyansk and are advancing on Izyum from the northwest, north, northeast and southeast as of September 9. Ukrainian forces will likely sever Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum within the coming days, possibly collapsing Russian positions in this area. A geolocated image confirms Ukrainian forces reached the southern outskirts of Kupyansk on September 9 along the R79 highway, and Russian sources reported ongoing tank battles in the area.[9] Ukrainian strikes have damaged the Kupyansk bridge over the Oskil River likely beyond usability, which will degrade Russian forces’ ability to supply and reinforce their positions against Ukrainian assaults.[10] Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces also reached the west bank of the Oskil River at Senkove and advanced south on the R79 at least as far as the northern outskirts of Horokhovatka (20km northeast of Izyum).[11] Unconfirmed reports state that Ukrainian forces reached Oskil (7km east of Izyum), which would severely disrupt the Russian GLOCs from Izyum to Lyman and degrade the ability of Russian forces in Lyman to support defensive operations in Izyum.[12] Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces launched ground attacks in the Lyman area.[13] A Russian source expressed worry that Ukrainian forces intend to either pin Russian forces in Lyman so they cannot reinforce Russian forces in Izyum or seize Lyman and advance on Izyum from the southeast.[14]
Russian forces and occupation authorities in the rear of occupied Kharkiv Oblast are panicking to reinforce Russian positions and “evacuate civilians” amid the high pace of the Ukrainian advance. Geolocated Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) footage shows Russian military convoys in Raihorodka, Luhansk Oblast driving north reportedly to reinforce Russian forces in unspecified areas of Kharkiv Oblast.[15] This footage is so far the Russian MoD’s only acknowledgment of the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast. Russian sources reported that Russian forces are reinforcing Kupyansk and Izyum with manpower, armor, and other vehicles via ground convoys and transport helicopters.[16] A Russian source claimed that some Russian units previously redeployed to unspecified axes far from the Kharkiv Oblast Axis are being rushed back to the Kharkiv Oblast Axis to defend against the counteroffensive.[17] Kharkiv Oblast occupation administration head Vitaly Ganchev announced the evacuation of civilians from Kupyansk, Velykyi Burluk (about 42km northwest of Kupyansk), and Izyum, reportedly towards Svatove, Luhansk Oblast, a major Russian transportation node connecting eastern Kharkiv Oblast with northern Luhansk Oblast.[18]
A senior US official said Ukrainian forces had achieved some success in attacking Russian supply lines, with the intention of cutting off and isolating Russian troops west of the Dnipro River.
Saturday's rapid advance did not end with Izium, as Ukraine appeared to have opened a new front against Russian defenses on the border of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
The head of the regional military administration for Luhansk, Serhiy Hayday, indicated the city of Lysychansk was the target of the new offensive.
Lysychansk was the last city in the Luhansk region in eastern Ukraine to fall under Russian control in July, after weeks of intense fighting. Hayday told CNN on Saturday "the occupiers, including both the collaborators and the military, are running away in a hurry."
"Locals have videos and photos proving that," Hayday said. He said the visual evidence could not be shared for security reasons. CNN was unable to verify Hayday's claim, but at least one border crossing into Russia has seen lines of vehicles forming.
Oleksiy Reznikov, the Ukrainian defense minister, said Saturday Ukraine's allies are "amazed" by the recent successes of the country's military. Speaking at the end of a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Ramstein Air Base, Germany, Reznikov said Ukraine's "partners were positively amazed by the dynamics of our troops' activities" in the south and east of the country.
🔴Fighting continues on the outskirts of the town of #Lyman in #Donetsk Oblast, which has been under Russian occupation since late May, local mayor Oleksandr Zhuravliov told Ukrainian broadcaster Suspilne on Sept. 10.#UkraineWillPrevail https://t.co/ALccnzDnQZ
"columns of Russian troops left the area following intense artillery barrages on September 4th and 5th. 'They moved even before we started fighting,' he says. 'They must have known we were about to attack, but the idiots seemed to have no idea what they could lose.'" pic.twitter.com/zGQBRyH30T
🔴Fighting continues on the outskirts of the town of #Lyman in #Donetsk Oblast, which has been under Russian occupation since late May, local mayor Oleksandr Zhuravliov told Ukrainian broadcaster Suspilne on Sept. 10.#UkraineWillPrevail https://t.co/ALccnzDnQZ
Supporting Effort #2- Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)
Russian forces maintained defensive positions in western Zaporizhia Oblast and maintained their shelling and missile campaign throughout the Southern Axis on September 9.[53] Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov reported that Russian forces have turned five schools in Melitopol into military bases and noted that Ukrainian partisans already destroyed one such base.[54] Social media users also reported a large unidentified explosion in Berdyansk.[55] Russian forces conducted missile strikes on settlements in Mykolaiv Oblast, fired at Nikopol with heavy tube artillery, and launched an airstrike on Radushne in Kryvyi Rih Raion.[56]
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) did not identify the responsible party for the shelling of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on September 8-9. The shelling may prompt Ukrainian officials to shut down the ZNPP’s operations. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated that there is now a low chance that reliable off-site power can be restored at the ZNPP because of increased shelling targeting Enerhodar.[57] Grossi noted that the shelling on September 8-9 (which resulted in a power blackout in Enerhodar) affected the Zaporizhzhia Thermal Power Plant (ZTPP) that serves as an offsite power source for the ZNPP. Grossi said that the IAEA understands if Ukrainian nuclear operating enterprise Energoatom decides to shut down the remaining operating reactor at the ZNPP due to continuous shelling, but warned that Energoatom will not be able to restart ZNPP operations unless they re-establish offsite power. Grossi called for the establishment of a safety zone around the plant. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) blamed Ukrainian forces for firing 27 shells at Enerhodar and bombarding the city six times resulting in a power outage.[58] The Russian MoD maintained its narrative that Ukrainian authorities are deliberately attempting to create a “man-made disaster” at the ZNPP.
Ukraine has managed to advance 75 km into Russian-occupied territory over 4 days. @MBielieskov explains what made this blitzkrieg in Kharkiv Oblast possible and what needs to happen so there are more of them https://t.co/CwxsA8RjYH
Out of the billions of dollars in weapons the U.S. has shipped to Ukraine since the Russian invasion, perhaps none have attracted as much attention as the M142 HIMARS, an advanced rocket launcher that Ukrainian troops have used to devastating effect. https://t.co/fziTYHp7kw
#Ukraine: The 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade and Azov SSO destroyed a Russian MT-LB/BMP with mortar fire in the vicinity of Vovchansk, #Kharkiv Oblast. pic.twitter.com/it3iX8rw4E
With a northern offensive, Ukraine has retaken the city of Izium, a place that, for months, Russia used as a way station to resupply and reinforce its troops in their campaign to seize the eastern Donbas region https://t.co/S5PoOKj9ZO
Ukraine’s armed forces attack Russian military targets to liberate their country from Russian invaders. Russia’s armed forces attack civilians to terrorize Ukrainian citizens… and it’s not working! https://t.co/MF1BsyZXqJ
The Russian army hasn’t suffered losses this severe since the early weeks of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine. @Forbes #UkraineWar https://t.co/EOIEwJ3WUc
Russians Welcomed by Ukrainians with bottles of vodka? Hardly. Certainly with bottles of flammable liquid, aka Molotov Cocktails. https://t.co/auWOLfHMgR
Who wants to join us on a road trip? Next stop, Belgorod!#Counteroffensive #FontsCollapsing pic.twitter.com/GTrwae4Rwo
Russian occupation administration in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region calling for a full evacuation. “Our army is doing all it can” but admits it can’t stop Ukraine. Stunning defeat in towns and villages where Russia told local collaborators it was there to stay. https://t.co/SmxYKbO3Au
🧵 Some highlights of a podcast of Michael Kofman in conversation with Dmitri Alperovitch today, discussing Ukraine's spectacular Kharkiv offensive: https://t.co/Roj1JcKTRP
So the big question. Now that everyone knows Vlad is losing, when does he launch his first nuke? Would he be thinking about using them in areas Russia has lost. Not enough nuke to get annihilated by the west. But enough to get ugly. https://t.co/RXWiTSWUJJ
Officially Russia said they would only use nukes in an emergency situation. Wouldn't losing much of their military capability and reputation be an emergency?
Russia says nuclear weapons use possible only in 'emergency circumstances' Russia's foreign ministry said on Thursday that Moscow would only use its nuclear arsenal in "emergency circumstances" and that it has no interest in a direct confrontation with NATO and the United St… https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-nuclear-weapons-use-possible-only-emergency-circumstances-2022-08-18/ Putin's logic is that NATO is pressing up to his border. He has already destroyed much of the region all he would have to do is make much of the west inhabitable for 5 years. You can use NukeMap to figure it out.
NUKEMAP by Alex Wellerstein NUKEMAP is a mapping mash-up that calculates the effects of the detonation of a nuclear bomb. https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/
The idea is to let Vlad thrash around and allow him to weaken his grip on power gently, letting him think he is doing OK giving time for insiders plot against him. We pretend not to escalate and try to figure out how he will explain his missing military to the mothers of Russia. I think we need to be more creative than all the usual experts. Experts didn't game the end of the war in Afghanistan very well. On Ukraine, they used numbers to predict that Vlad might win with a lasting insurgency. Things are moving in a different direction now. Experts: Investors Bet Ukraine-Russia War Will Be Averted Russian troops are continuing to build up on the Ukrainian border, but investors are piling into bets that there won’t be a war, with the currencies of both countries having strengthened in recent day… https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-bet-ukraine-russia-war-will-be-averted-11644575137 So as Putin's dreams and his army get ground down in Ukraine, diplomacy is off the table and the reality of Russians suffering from his grab...what is Putin's exit strategy?
1/ UTW – Operational Update: ZSU Counter Offensive in the Donbas, 04-10 Sep. The ZSU is engaged in what may likely become the most stunningly successful counteroffensive since the IDFs OPERATION GAZELLE during the 1973 Yom Kippur War. #ukrainecounteroffensive #UkraineWillWin pic.twitter.com/nrC8cg02ia
2/ The ZSU has successfully utilized the concept & practices of reflexive control to create maneuver space for a division-equivalent force to penetrate, exploit, and breakthrough the dangerously vulnerable left flank and rear of the Operational Group of Russian Forces Izyum. 3/ By taking the time to properly shape the conditions for success, the ZSU has in one-week undone months of VSRF operational progress. As of the timing of this assessment, ZSU forces have already pushed further north into northern Kharkiv Oblast toward Velykyi Burluk. 4/ Russian forces are now facing a dire situation in which they have clearly lost operational momentum & the strategic initiative. With the loss of Izyum, Kupyansk, & Velykyi Burluk the VSRF position in the Donbas is now in operational peril & likewise is strategically tenuous. 5/ On 14 April 2022 I surmised that the ZSU would execute a false attack against a portion of the defensive line while applying localized overwhelming force to a weakened defensive sector before the Russians could adjust forces to prevent a breakthrough. Unroll available on Thread Reader
6/ It appears the Ukrainians have been able to accomplish this. They will continue to pressure the VSRF as they withdraw & attempt to establish a defensive line to retain control of occupied territory. However, given the poor state Russian forces the ZSU will gain more ground.
Jubilation today over Ukraine's offensive success, but sustaining the Ukrainian war effort deep into the fall will only be possible if Kyiv can stabilize its economy and finances. Chartbook #149 https://t.co/PmzKBCwWV5 pic.twitter.com/C1YhwdydRu
Would love to be a journalist there who could ask: "General, please explain the objective of this war again? Is it about Nazis or something? Because people in those towns seem pretty happy to see you chased out and the UAF guys are the ones being treated as liberators." https://t.co/5rBqB9HZdO
This info is coming from many sources so we are reporting it but noting that it has not been confirmed by UA: Denis Pushilin, DNR head, has resigned and fled to ruzzia. https://t.co/NNwBlofGVf
He claimed that the aim of the withdrawal was to achieve the main aim of Russia's so-called "special military operation" - the capture of the entire Donbas. The statement came after Ukrainian forces regained control over Balakliya, Izyum, and Kupiansk.
If I could have my former Republican pals and clients read one book, it would be “The Road to Unfreedom” by @TimothyDSnyder. Published in 2018, it is stunningly prophetic: on Trump, on Ukraine, on the threat to democracy. https://t.co/FTUFCtXpBb