Sometimes, questions in our weekly Q+A thread warrant a little bit more research. Not that we don't think or look up information for answers to other questions, but some need a litlte more time. A little more heft. A lot more words. That's the case with this question from user seattlemike: 

Scott Frost took a winless UCF team and took them to a fake national title 11 win season. He then got his dream job and tanked. I still supported coach brown’s hire but look how this is going. I am now curious, which is the greater predictor of success at the P5 level? P5 assistant or G5 HC? I’m to lazy to do the research and not sure where you would start. Maybe conference championships? National title in the last 20 years?

I went back and did some research and the data is.... leaning one direction. There are a lot of variables that go with it, of course. For instance, I don't think we can look at National Championship teams and determine how that dictates success from coaching hires. Recruiting. Bluebloods. Money. All that plays a factor. However, I did take a look at the head coaching hires in Power Five conferences from 2018 (the year Scott Frost was hired) and 2019 (the year Neal Brown was hired) to compare the results since then for each of the types of backgrounds. Here's a rundown of what I found. 

CATEGORY ONE: FORMER HEAD COACH AT A SMALLER SCHOOL

Of all the Power Five Conference hires in these two offseasons, seven of them came from 'smaller' schools. I went with 'smaller' here because Chris Klieman came to Kansas State from an FCS program rather than a Group of Five. However, you remove him and his 22-16 record and every single Group of Five coach hired to be a Power Five coach has a sub .500 record right now and half of them have been fired already. 

Neal Brown, Troy to West Virginia: 17-20

Scott Satterfield, Appalachian State to Louisville: 19-20

Geoff Collins, Temple to Georgia Tech: 10-26

Scott Frost, UCF to Nebraska: 16-31 (fired)

Chad Morris, SMU to Arkansas: 4-18 (fired)

Matt Wells, Utah State to Texas Tech: 13-17 (fired)

I guess we could probably end the research and discussion here, right? Well, not exactly. Let's continue.....

CATEGORY TWO: FORMER POWER FIVE COORDINATOR WHO BECOMES A HEAD COACH

In all, there were nine Power Five coordinators who were hired to be full-time head coaches at the same or different Power Five program. A couple of them come with caveats, which we will cover below. Here's a rundown:

Mario Cristobal, Oregon OC to Oregon: 35-13 (left for Miami, where he's 2-0)

Ryan Day, Ohio State OC to Ohio State: 33-4

Joe Moorhead, Penn State OC to Mississippi State: 14-12 (fired)

Jonathan Smith, Washington OC to Oregon State: 18-28

Matt Luke, Ole Miss OC to Ole Miss: 9-15 (fired)

Jeremy Pruitt, Alabama DC to Tennessee: 16-19 (fired)

Mel Tucker, Georgia DC to Colorado: 5-7 (left for Michigan State, where he's 15-7)

Manny Diaz, Miami DC to Miami: 21-15 (fired)

Mike Locksley, Alabama OC to Maryland: 14-18

So.... four of the nine Power Five coordinators that were hired were then fired due to poor performance. Two others left on their own accord, meaning only one Power Five coordinator that remains with his new school has a winning record..... and that's Ohio State, which just hired from within to keep a good thing going. The only other hire that was definitively a success, Mario Cristobal, was the same way - a hire from inside the program to keep the good times rolling.

With this information, the answer might not be so clear. Let's keep it going, though, as we're not done. 

CATEGORY THREE: POWER FIVE HEAD COACHES CHANGING SCENERY

During these two offseason, there were also four Power Five Head Coaches that simply changed jobs. Well, not simply. Some felt it was a step up. Some wanted money. Some might have already been on rocky footing. 

Dan Mullen, Mississippi State to Florida: 34-15 (fired)

Jimbo Fisher, Florida State to Texas A&M: 35-15

Willie Taggart, Oregon to Florida State: 9-12 (fired)

Kevin Sumlin, Texas A&M to Arizona: 9-20 (fired)

Three of the four coaches were fired from their new jobs, and Fisher is feeling the heat in College Station despite a decent record during his time with the Aggies. Mullen started out strong, but the program went downhill quickly from Year Three to Year Four, and higher ups felt a change was needed. 

How about one more category? 

CATEGORY FOUR: I'M BORED ON TV AND THINK I CAN STILL COACH

That's right. There are enough of these that it actually deserves its own category. Four Power Five hires in the 2018 and 2019 offseasons were of former coaches that were currently in jobs on television as analysts and color guys for broadcasts or pre-game shows. 

Chip Kelly, ESPN to UCLA: 20-25

Les Miles, ESPN to Kansas: 3-18 (fired)

Mack Brown, ESPN to UNC: 24-17

Herm Edwards, ESPN to Arizona State: 26-19

That's right, the category with the highest rate of "guys still coaching four to five years later" is.... the "old guys who were working on TV" category. This is a big win for the armchair quarterbacks and couch coaches everywhere!

Let's summarize some results here and rank them. 

Best winning percentage at their schools (meaning, not counting Mel Tucker at Michigan State or Mario Cristobal at Miami): 

Highest percentage of coaches still employed by the schools that hired them

Bowl Game Appearances (discrepancies in appearances and record are due to COVID cancellations of bowls)

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